27. March 2010, 22:47
Some months ago, I introduced political sociologist Eric Kaufmann here, with whom I had the joy to share and debate some data and ideas concerning our common field of research, the reproductive potentials of religion(s). Coming from the scientific study of religion(s) and an evolutionary perspective, I was curious (and admittedly a little bit sceptical) whether it would be possible to handle the multidimensional topic in the field of contemporary politics in any meaningful way. Now I know that it is. "Shall the Religious inherit the Earth? Demography and Politics in the twenty-first Century" is a groundbreaking book about religions, demography and our future. It has the potential to change perceptions in sciences, publics and politics.
Eric starts with a discussion of theories concerning secularization and demographics. And he points out a consequence of modern demographic transition: As children are becoming a matter of economically expensive choice for more and more people and fertility rates are plummeting, pro-natalist religious traditions are gaining momentum. If you imagine a population with a median birth rate of 4 and a group of highly religious having a rate of 6, this would account for an advantage of "only" 50%, most of which could be levelled out i.e. by secularization and assimilation. But if both rates would drop collateraly by two to 2 and 4 respectively, the gap would extend to 100%, with only the highly religious population still growing. And in fact, birth rates in almost all free and wealthy societies fell below replacement level, with secular strata going down to one child per women and less. (Here, I want to add that Eric is not only right with the numbers, but with the cases studies, too. We are having lots of highly fertile religious communities but not yet a single find of a demographically stable, secular population!)
Thus, Eric notes the diverse development of three different milieus:
* Especially in wealthy and secure countries lacking extrinsic motivations for religious adherence, many people tend to abandon their religious affiliation. Secularization is taking place - but as seculars tend to have very few children, it is running into demographic dead ends. In fact, almost all secular populations are increasingly depending on immigration - which is in almost all cases bringing new religious identities into the field, i.e. growing Muslim groups to Europe.
* Moderate and mainstream religious tend to have somewhat higher birth rates than their secular neighbours. But then, they have low retention rates: Many of their children are abandoning the shallow faiths, most often secularizing.
* It's the fundamentalist movements that are combining high birth rates with high retention rates. While the moderates are torn apart between secular and fundamentalist critics, the highly devout strengthen their borders, building distinct milieus, worldviews, institutions and languages. Highly fertile groups (termed "endogenous growth sects" by Eric) as i.e. the Amish, the Hutterites or orthodox Jews may even chose not to proselytize in order to protect their demographically expanding community structures.
Going through the USA (i.e. highly fertile Christians as the Amish or the Quiverfull movement), the Muslim world (with plummeting birth rates and forming salafist communities), Europe (with a secularly shrinking native population and growing fringe and immigrant groups) and - especially convincing - Israel (with a shrinking secular or moderate majority pincered by the exponential growth of ultra-orthodox Jews and religious Muslims), Eric is emphasizing the observable processes by sound research and data.
And an avowed secular himself, the author is repeatedly discussing the consequences, dangers and options of the development gaining momentum by the day. Those daring to face these well-written pages will get a fresh perspective on everyday politics, from the local to the global level. John Gray endorsed the book by the citation: "Brilliant and provocative... a book every liberal should read". I would just like to add: "And everyone interested in sciences, religions, politics and thoughts has to read it - quickly!"
Links:
* At the blog of his rightfully proud father is an interview with Eric Kaufmann about his new book available.
* "Shall the Religious inherit the Earth?" on wikireligiosus
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